Since the 1970s, the Census Bureau has produced yearly population estimates for states and counties for the decade following each Decennial Census. The estimates include the number of children (population ages 0 to 17) for states and counties. The estimation method used by the Census Bureau starts with a population base and then adds or subtracts estimated yearly incremental change to that base.
In the past, the Decennial Census counts have provided the estimates base, but the 2020 Census detailed data needed for the base was not available in time to use with the 2021 and 2022 population estimates so the Census Bureau staff developed a new PEP (Population Estimates Program) methodology called the blended base.
This paper is intended to provide guidance for child advocates, researchers, and data analysts on the potential impact of the Census Bureau’s new blended base methodology for the child population (ages 0 to 17) .
We believe the two figures that matter most in terms of assessing the comparison between the PEP blended base estimates and the Census counts are the number of children in a state or county and the share of all children in the nation that are in a given state or county. So, we compared the number of children in the PEP blended base to the number of children in the 2020 Census count in terms of the absolute number of children as well as the shares of all children in the country as of April 1, 2020. We examined differences numerically and in percentage terms.
This paper is intended to provide guidance for child advocates, researchers, and data analysts on the potential impact of the Census Bureau’s new blended base methodology for the child population (age 0 to 17) .