In conducting the decennial census, the Census Bureau’s goal is to count every person “once, only once, and in the right place.” However, the Census Bureau has historically undercounted young children in the census at a high rate.[i] Notably, the 2020 Census recorded an undercount of young children of 5.4 percent—the largest for that age group since at least the 1970 Census.[ii] The net undercount of young children in the 2020 Census was higher than any other age group.
The Census Bureau has acknowledged the undercount of young children as a “long-standing” problem. In preparation for 2030, the Bureau is pursuing multiple strategies to improve the count of young children. One proposed strategy to improve child counts is the greater use of administrative data (AD).[iii]
This blog examines whether the use of administrative data will improve the count of young children, including looking at the count of particular groups of young children. It builds on a 2023 report titled, How Well Would Administrative Records Correct the Undercount of Young Children in the U.S. Census?[iv] In his report, O’Hare examined the differences in demographic characteristics between the 2020 Census and a 2020 Census simulation based on administrative data. In this blog, I also provide a brief look at how AD-based measures of young children compare to benchmarks from other sources. If there are substantial differences between AD-based measures and well-established benchmarks, what might we interpret from these differences?
[i] Fernandez, Leticia, Rachel Shattuck, and James Noon. “The Use of Administrative Records and the American Community Survey to Study the Characteristics of Undercounted Young Children in the 2010 Census.” Census Bureau, May 2018. Available at https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2018/adrm/carra-wp-2018-05.pdf; Lee, Jae June, and William O’Hare. “Census Accuracy: Five Key Results & Trends Explained.” Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality, November 2024. Available at https://www.georgetownpoverty.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Census-Accuracy-Five-Key-Results-and-Trends-Explained-Nov2024.pdf.
[ii] Census Bureau. “Census Bureau Releases Experimental Estimates of State and County Undercounts and Overcounts of Young Children in the 2020 Census.” April 2024. Available at https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/undercounts-overcounts-children-2020-census.html.
[iii] Census Bureau. “2030 Census Research Project Explorer.” Available at https://www.census.gov/data/data-tools/decennial/2030-census-research-explorer/.
[iv] O’Hare, Bill. “How Well Would Administrative Records Correct the Undercount of Young Children in the U.S. Census?” June 2023. Available at https://countallkids.org/resources/how-well-would-administrative-records-correct-the-undercount-of-young-children-in-the-u-s-census/.
